Monday, September 30, 2013

Big Time College Football: An Introduction

Like a segment of the US population, I love college football. I grew up watching that indomitable UTEP (University of Texas-El Paso) football team lose most of their games; how they tried to win and how the city of El Paso cheered for victories, but it was rarely to be. The most exciting game each season was when UTEP played New Mexico State during the, ‘Battle of I-10’. This rivalry was exciting because whoever won would have bragging rights for that 40 mile section of I-10 between El Paso and Las Cruces and during particularly difficult years, it might be the only win of the season.

As I grew up into young adulthood in the 90s, I stood by my beloved college football and watched it every Saturday. When Sunday arrived I loathed the NFL; bloated salaries, lack of subtlety, and overt, in-your-face capitalism. As a student of the fine arts I could not support an organization that was only about one thing, making money. But how I loved college football; the young men that played college football played it for the love of the game; each player had a fierce passion, enthusiasm, and a deep commitment to their team and their school. I felt a kinship with these players because I felt the same passion and commitment for classical music; all was perfect.
                                          
But then something changed. I got a little older and started looking at higher education as the place where adults, young and old go to be transformed through academic learning and first-hand experience. If a student goes to college they go to improve their life through academic enhancement, skills acquisition, and career preparation. Ideally this preparation is grounded in a solid liberal arts foundation with a core program that allows them to be successful at whatever they do after college.


This brings me back to college football. According to the NCAA, 1.7% of senior football players will be drafted into the NFL. This laughably small percentage is well, small. In any highly competitive field, and I mean highly competitive, only a small percentage of people actually get ‘jobs’ but this tenuous reality is not the case for the vast majority of students who get degrees at America’s colleges and universities. Do only 1.7% of MBA graduates get jobs? Do only 1.7% of MDs or JDs eventually find employment? Of course not. The comparison is apples to cannon balls. If a student becomes a student-athlete for a football college program, they have a 98.3% chance of not being drafted into the NFL (it is understood that different colleges and conferences have different stats).

Most college football players know that the likelihood of getting into the NFL is slim, but do they know the chance of them finishing an undergraduate degree is also diminished by playing big time college football? I am going to ignore the NCAA’s Graduation Success Rate because in my opinion, it is pretty goofy. There is nothing like creating some metrics to make yourself look good, no matter how well meaning. I am going to strictly look at outcomes, and the 2012 Adjusted Graduation Gap (AAG) Report, provided by Dr. Richard Southall, delivers. According to the Adjusted Graduation Gap, the SEC is minus eighteen and the PAC-12, which is the worst of the worst, is minus twenty-seven. This means that when you take the Federal Graduation Rate (FGR) for these conferences and add the Adjusted Graduation Gap you will have the graduation rate for big time college football programs. This shows that student athlete graduation outcomes at big-time football programs struggle because of the demanding requirements of playing Division I football and the variety of student specific issues that contribute to this struggle.

Now do most athletes who play college football expect to get drafted into the NFL? No. Do most of them study hard to attain their degrees? Yes. But the reality is that many big time college football programs are businesses that have nothing to do with the colleges they are attached to. Although BSC schools are some of the most highly regarded research institutions in land, what do research dollars, mostly driven by graduate students, have to do with undergraduate football student athletes besides getting alumni to donate money?

College football, specifically big time college football, does did not meet the needs of the student athletes who play the game. To make things worse, high profile colleges programs make millions of dollars on the talents off these young adults and pay them a pittance, sorry, give them scholarships and grants for their efforts. Administrators talk about student athletes and drop names such as Robert Griffin III and his impressive academic accomplishment at Baylor, but in reality, a noticeable percentage of student athletes go to big time programs only to prepare them for the NFL.

With so many fond college football memories, I, like many, am concerned about the countless football controversies. Besides the acute trauma that occurred at Penn State, most football controversies are about money (on the back end, Penn State is also about money once you get past the horror). How many years did it take for the powers-that-be to agree on a playoff system in college football? This type of ‘controversy’ takes the attention off the real reason students go to college, to get an education and prepare them for the future.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Research Project: Winter 2013

Ever since I wrote the article Competitive? about the first two-weeks of the 2013 NCAA football season I have been fascinated by how much revenue college football teams make. Some teams make a lot of money while others, often in the same conference, do not. Throughout the fall and winter of 2013-2014 I am going to look at the numbers for BCS a non-BCS teams and ask a series of questions:

Revenue questions:
- Do the larger revenue schools win the majority of the time? What is the percentage?
- Do the smaller revenue schools ever have a chance to beat larger revenue schools? What is the percentage?
- Why are certain schools more successful with lower revenue? Is there a limit to how successful they can be?
- Can a program such as Boise State ever grow to compete with the likes of Alabama or USC?
- Can a school such as North Dakota State ever become a BCS program?

College football questions:
- How important is the brand?
- Can BCS teams ever become semi-pro?
- How would colleges handle the transition if programs went from student-athlete centered to athlete centered that are semi-autonomous?
- What would happen if a semi-pro college football team went bankrupt?
- Now would the NCAA change to allow for semi-pro football and basketball teams?
- Does the NFL want to have a semi-pro feeder league? Might they be worried about Saturday competition?

These are just a few of the questions I have come up with so far; the list is not complete, it is not exhaustive. I have not done a literature review, I have not asked the leading researchers in the field any questions, I have not reviewed the top journals or books; I am curious to see where my interest in college football will lead me.


Concerning the numbers, I will be using the Equity in Athletics Data Analysis Cutting Tool provided by the US Department of Education to look at the 2012-2013 college football season (last year’s season) using the 2011-2012 revenue numbers. The numbers for the 2012-2013 season have not been published yet. An interesting quote on the frontpage of the website states “Please note that valid comparisons of athletics data are possible only with study and analysis of the conditions affecting each institution.” I agree with this statement to a point but for the most part this is a cop-out that I will address later.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Competitive?

The 2013-2014 NCAA football season is up and running and during the the first two weeks a few games were exciting, there were a handful of upsets, but mainly were blowouts. Below are a few of the scores from week one and two with the revenue of each program. Revenue amounts was retrieved from FindtheData.

Week 1

19.9x
Oklahoma 34 ($58.8 million)
LA-Monroe 0 ($2.95 million)

17.43x
Texas 56 ($95.7 million)
New Mexico State 7 ($5.49 million)

13.85x
Oregon 66 (revenue of $27.7 million)
Nicholls State 3 ($2 million)

12x
Michigan 59 ($70.3 million)
Central Michigan 9 ($5.82 million)

11.44x
Florida 24 ($72.8 million)
Toledo 6 (6.36 million)

9x
Wisconsin 45 (revenue of $43.3 million)
Massachusetts 0 ($4.77 million)

Week 2

20.82x
Texas A&M 65 (revenue of $45.4 million)
Sam Houston State 28 (revenue of $2.18 million)

18.27x
Wisconsin 48 (revenue of $43.3 million)
Tennessee Tech 0 (revenue of $2.37 million)

8.77x
Louisville 44 (revenue of $25.7 million)
Eastern Kentucky 7 (revenue of $2.93 million)

8.54x
Nebraska 56 (revenue of $54.7 million)
Southern Mississippi 13 (revenue of $6.4 million)

4.45x
Clemson 52 (revenue of 31.7 million)
South Carolina State 13 (revenue $7.11 million)

4.2x
Ohio State 42 (revenue of $60.8 million)
San Diego State 7 (revenue of $14.4 million)

Looking at the above scores along with the revenue and the multiplier of how much more revenue the ‘big’ school has than the ‘small’ school makes me wonder:
- Why do BCS schools play a two or three game preseason; who benefits?
- Is it  good experience for smaller revenue schools to get blown-out by BCS schools? Do their football players learn valuable lessons? Do the smaller schools get a payout?
- During these games, do neutral fans enjoy watching Clemson score 52 points or Wisconsin blank Tennessee Tech?
- Why is the BCS not semi-pro?

In my opinion, the only people who enjoy these games are the fanbases of BCS schools and the media outlets that cannot get enough of Alabama or Michigan. I personally would rather watch a WAC or a Conference USA game than a BCS team play a low revenue non-BCS team early in the season (of the schools I attended, one is BCS and the other is not). These games are not competitive, they pad early season stats, commentators get excited about early Heisman buzz, and worst of all, they are dull and not entertaining.

During the 2013-2014 NCAA football season I will write a handfull of article explaining why big time football (and basketball) needs to stop acting like it is populated by student athletes who are amatures and become semi-professional.



Addendum (added Sept 22):
I am not sure where FindTheData got current revenue numbers since last season’s revenue numbers, 2012-2013 football season, have not been published on the Equity in Athletics Data Analysis Cutting Tool yet.